The problem with people who buy into their own BS is that they think everyone else does too. You can't assume that because you have a great idea and a solid plan that everything else will fall into place. Things will go wrong.
When you believe your own hype, you're not just arrogant, you're lying to yourself and others. This leads to risky assumptions which will derail your efforts sooner or later. Don't think you'll just outsmart a problem by stating that it doesn't matter. Instead, maintain a healthy level of skepticism and cynicism in your own abilities, so you can be prepared when the unpredictable and unanticipated come up.
Unfortunately, it usually takes a seriously humbling experience to fix this behavior. The good news is if you're still standing when it's over, you'll probably be much better off in the long run.
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